Modeling the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater or sludge and COVID-19 cases in three New England regions.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to compare statistical techniques estimating the association between SARS-CoV-2 RNA in untreated wastewater and sludge and reported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. METHODS: SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations (copies/mL) were measured from 24-h composite samples of wastewater in Massachusetts (MA) (daily; 8/19/2020-1/19/2021) and Maine (ME) (weekly; 9/1/2020-3/2/2021) and sludge samples in Connecticut (CT) (daily; 3/1/2020-6/1/2020). We fit linear, generalized additive with a cubic regression spline (GAM), Poisson, and negative binomial models to estimate the association between SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration and reported COVID-19 cases. RESULTS: The models that fit the data best were linear [adjusted R2=0.85 (MA), 0.16 (CT), 0.63 (ME); root-mean-square error (RMSE)=0.41 (MA), 1.14 (CT), 0.99 (ME)), GAM (adjusted R2=0.86 (MA), 0.16 (CT) 0.65 (ME); RMSE=0.39 (MA), 1.14 (CT), 0.97 (ME)], and Poisson [pseudo R2=0.84 (MA), 0.21 (CT), 0.52 (ME); RMSE=0.39 (MA), 0.67 (CT), 0.79 (ME)]. CONCLUSIONS: Linear, GAM, and Poisson models outperformed negative binomial models when relating SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater or sludge to reported COVID-19 cases.

Disparities in national and state estimates of COVID-19 vaccination receipt and intent to vaccinate by race/ethnicity, income, and age group among adults ≥ 18 years, United States.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 morbidity and mortality has disproportionately affected vulnerable populations such as minority racial/ethnic groups. Understanding disparities in vaccine intentions and reasons for vaccine hesitancy are important for developing effective strategies for ameliorating racial/ethnic COVID-19 inequities. METHODS: Using six waves of the large, nationally representative Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey data from January 6-March 29, 2021 (n = 459,235), we examined national and state estimates for vaccination intent, defined as receipt of ≥ 1 dose of the COVID-19 vaccine or definite intent to be vaccinated, by race/ethnicity with stratification by household income and age group. In separate logistic regression models, we also examined the interaction between race/ethnicity and household income, and race/ethnicity and age group, and its association with vaccination intent. Lastly, we examined reasons for not vaccinating by race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Vaccination intent differed by racial/ethnic group, household income, and age group nationally and by Health and Human Services (HHS) region and state. A significant interaction was observed between race/ethnicity and household income (F(8,72) = 4.50, p < 0.001), and race/ethnicity and age group (F(8,72) = 15.66, p < 0.001). Non-Hispanic Black adults with lower income (<$35,000) and younger age (18-49 years) were least likely to intend to vaccinate. Similar disparities across racial/ethnic groups were seen across most HHS regions and states. Concerns about possible side effects and effectiveness were significantly higher among all minority groups compared to non-Hispanic White adults. CONCLUSION: Disparities in vaccination intent by racial/ethnic groups underscore the need for interventions and recommendations designed to improve vaccination coverage and confidence in underserved communities, such as younger and lower income racial/ethnic minority groups. Efforts to reduce disparities and barriers to vaccination are needed to achieve equity in vaccination coverage, and ultimately, to curb COVID-19 transmission.